Ryan Wilson: Bryan Rust contract is fair value... just like the Conor Sheary one Bryan Rust contract is fair value... just like the Conor Sheary one

Good day to be both a Notre Dame and a Penguins fan

All these 500k “overpays” are starting to add up...

Rust, Shultz, Sheary, Horn (300k),

Take that 1.8 million, toss on Hunwicks 2.2, and dump Hags 4.0, there’s 8 million that gets you a guy like JVR with a million to spare

All these 500k “overpays” are starting to add up...

Rust, Shultz, Sheary, Horn (300k),

Take that 1.8 million, toss on Hunwicks 2.2, and dump Hags 4.0, there’s 8 million that gets you a guy like JVR with a million to spare
- RoloTahmasee

So the first 4 contracts dont have the extra 500k/300k, you get JVR and you still need to fill a roster spot with 0 cap space.

Thought it was going to be 3M, but considering all the big goals he has scored when it mattered most, give him an extra 500k.

All these 500k “overpays” are starting to add up...

Rust, Shultz, Sheary, Horn (300k),

Take that 1.8 million, toss on Hunwicks 2.2, and dump Hags 4.0, there’s 8 million that gets you a guy like JVR with a million to spare
- RoloTahmasee

sick logic bro

Bryan Rust with 10 goals in his last 35 playoff games. Connor Sheary with 2 goals in his last 34 playoff games.

So the first 4 contracts dont have the extra 500k/300k, you get JVR and you still need to fill a roster spot with 0 cap space.
- MattStrat

What are you talking about, The only guys missing from the roster are Hunwick and Hags, then you have the addition of a JVR...

Hunwicks not gonna play anyways, and you still have the 6 or 7 million that we already have now in space

The overpays are preventing you from upgrading a mid tier player like Hags to a top tier player like JVR, Hence the "slight" overpays are adding up

But please, give us another post where we sign Bozak for 2.5 and trade Sheary for Pacioretty, and JVR signs for 6

All these 500k “overpays” are starting to add up...

Rust, Shultz, Sheary, Horn (300k),

Take that 1.8 million, toss on Hunwicks 2.2, and dump Hags 4.0, there’s 8 million that gets you a guy like JVR with a million to spare
- RoloTahmasee

Let someone else sign the next Lucic or Clarkson deal. Not the Pens...

Bryan Rust with 10 goals in his last 35 playoff games. Connor Sheary with 2 goals in his last 34 playoff games.
- madmike71

Sheary's advanced metrics are also heavily buoyed by his 2016-2017 campaign where he was at a 98 gamescore which dropped to 73 in the past year, while Rust's has been fairly consistent with an 84 in 16-17 and 86 in 17-18.

Sheary's advanced metrics are also heavily buoyed by his 2016-2017 campaign where he was at a 98 gamescore which dropped to 73 in the past year, while Rust's has been fairly consistent with an 84 in 16-17 and 86 in 17-18.
- jonnemo8771

Rust can do other things when he's not scoring. He's pretty good defensively and he PK's. He drives the net.....which is the thing I like the most about him. He's pretty fearless in that regard.

Sheary.... Well.... He does none of those things and gets pushed off the puck like a child. IMO they aren't comparable in any way other than size and the time they broke into the league. One guy is a Swiss Army knife and the other is a plastic spork.

Rust can do other things when he's not scoring. He's pretty good defensively and he PK's. He drives the net.....which is the thing I like the most about him. He's pretty fearless in that regard.

Sheary.... Well.... He does none of those things and gets pushed off the puck like a child. IMO they aren't comparable in any way other than size and the time they broke into the league. One guy is a Swiss Army knife and the other is plastic spork.
- madmike71

I think everything you just stated is why Sheary's the one out. Not because he has a bad contract or a bad value on a contract, but because he's good at one thing and when he's not doing that thing well his flubs become more obvious.

What are you talking about, The only guys missing from the roster are Hunwick and Hags, then you have the addition of a JVR...

Hunwicks not gonna play anyways, and you still have the 6 or 7 million that we already have now in space

The overpays are preventing you from upgrading a mid tier player like Hags to a top tier player like JVR, Hence the "slight" overpays are adding up

But please, give us another post where we sign Bozak for 2.5 and trade Sheary for Pacioretty, and JVR signs for 6
- RoloTahmasee

Wut?

Rust can do other things when he's not scoring. He's pretty good defensively and he PK's. He drives the net.....which is the thing I like the most about him. He's pretty fearless in that regard.

Sheary.... Well.... He does none of those things and gets pushed off the puck like a child. IMO they aren't comparable in any way other than size and the time they broke into the league. One guy is a Swiss Army knife and the other is a plastic spork.
- madmike71

Sheary and Rust are both average contracts. Not great value and not bad as stated.
I think where this leads though is Guentzel coming up... Does he get 5.5-6 million now on a 4 year deal? Younger, better regular season stats, over a point per game in playoffs, better potential... also his most common line mate is Sid.
That’s gotta be worth more then an extra million more then rust in his mind and his agents.

So, to summarise the pens cap and needs right now... They have around 5 mil to for Oleksiak and a 4th line center. Let's say that 4th line center comes from within....Blueger or Johnson. still some cap space for a depth player.

Pens are linked to both Kunitz and Duclair. Which one would you prefer in a 1 year 1 mil contract? I take Kunitz due to his hitting and familiarity with the players/system.

Sheary and Rust are both average contracts. Not great value and not bad as stated.
I think where this leads though is Guentzel coming up... Does he get 5.5-6 million now on a 4 year deal? Younger, better regular season stats, over a point per game in playoffs, better potential... also his most common line mate is Sid.
That’s gotta be worth more then an extra million more then rust in his mind and his agents.
- pens4life-66

I say 5-5.5 is pretty fair.

I’m just not a fan of paying Sheary 3 mil to play on the 3rd or 4th line and possibly push out ZAR, Sprong or Simon from a roster spot. Those 3 need to play to continue their development. If Sheary is traded, I’d like to see him swapped for a dman.

I’m just not a fan of paying Sheary 3 mil to play on the 3rd or 4th line and possibly push out ZAR, Sprong or Simon from a roster spot. Those 3 need to play to continue their development. If Sheary is traded, I’d like to see him swapped for a dman.
- drummer829

Sheary is way better than ZAR and Simon.

Sheary is way better than ZAR and Simon.
- Feds91Stammer

I wouldn't go that far. All 3 are very different type of players and the main difference is ZAR and Simon make well under a million compared to 3 mil for Sheary. Pens would be just fine without him in the lineup next season.

So, to summarise the pens cap and needs right now... They have around 5 mil to for Oleksiak and a 4th line center. Let's say that 4th line center comes from within....Blueger or Johnson. still some cap space for a depth player.

Pens are linked to both Kunitz and Duclair. Which one would you prefer in a 1 year 1 mil contract? I take Kunitz due to his hitting and familiarity with the players/system.
- cranktheradio

I haven't seen enough of Duclair tbh. I tend to go with the younger player, but I don't know how good Duclair is defensively. Personally, there's some other players that I'd rather have than either of them. I'm a little worried about bringing back old favorites. That has rarely worked for the Penguins. I'm also worried that Kuni will find his way to the top line if/when injuries happen.

Sheary and Rust are both average contracts. Not great value and not bad as stated.
I think where this leads though is Guentzel coming up... Does he get 5.5-6 million now on a 4 year deal? Younger, better regular season stats, over a point per game in playoffs, better potential... also his most common line mate is Sid.
That’s gotta be worth more then an extra million more then rust in his mind and his agents.
- pens4life-66

Guentzel could also get term that Sheary and Rust didn't at a younger age. You have to remember that with Bryan and Conor we were buying a lot of UFA years, Rust one more than Sheary. That means you have to up the contract AAV to compensate for for the delayed payday that they didn't get in their earlier years or else they'd be better off getting a bridge and pursuing a free agency pay day to compensate for their early career low salaries.

By giving Guentzel a $4.5 mil AAV contract at the age of 24, he'll be making a TON more career money than Sheary had by the signing of his contract at 25 and Rust had by the signing of his at 26. Because of that, its not really fair to compare Guentzel's contract situation to Sheary and Rust's. They're kind of apples and oranges because they have much different career earning implications. Its a lot more apt to compare Guentzel's contract situation to a guy like Tyler Johnson's who ended up signing a three year bridge for 3.3 mil AAV at the age of 23 and then a long term contract for 5. I think splitting the difference for G and doing a long term contract 4.5 would be fair to both sides.

Sparknotes because that kind of rambled: Net earnings matter, and you can bring down cap hit/AAV by offering a player a good opportunity for career earnings.

I really hope JJ does not don a Pens sweater, but if he does, we can only hope they pull Justin Schultz 2.0

Sheary is way better than ZAR and Simon.
- Feds91Stammer

Possibly, but Sheary is approaching his ceiling whereas ZAR and Simon are on cheaper contracts and have room to grow. Sheary was also ineffective in the bottom 6 during the playoffs. He could find his scoring touch and pot 15+ goals on the 3rd line, or he could continue his drought and probably lower his value even more. Plus, it sounds like the pens are interested in Kunitz and/or Duclair on the bottom 6, which makes even less room. I’d feel much better scratching Kunitz or Duclair at around 1 mil than scratching Sheary at 3 mil

Possibly, but Sheary is approaching his ceiling whereas ZAR and Simon are on cheaper contracts and have room to grow. Sheary was also ineffective in the bottom 6 during the playoffs. He could find his scoring touch and pot 15+ goals on the 3rd line, or he could continue his drought and probably lower his value even more. Plus, it sounds like the pens are interested in Kunitz and/or Duclair on the bottom 6, which makes even less room. I’d feel much better scratching Kunitz or Duclair at around 1 mil than scratching Sheary at 3 mil
- drummer829

Both are set to be 24 years old by the start of the season arguably meaning they are what they are and there is no more "potential"